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The board, with what everyone actually paid. Our value is what the model says a player is worth in this exact format; went for is the real winning bid. The gap is the whole point — a negative number is a player the room let go cheap, a positive one is somebody who got carried away. Undrafted players are still listed, because a $12 value sitting on the wire is the first place to look after an injury.

Superflex draft board vs the auction

#	Board rank	Player	Pos	Tm	Our value	Went for	Over/under	Drafted by

Lineup detail

#	Slot	Player	Pos	Tm	ESPN	Ours	Used	Edge

Bench

#	Player	Pos	Tm	ESPN	Ours	Used	Edge

Standings

#	Team	Rec	PF

This is the part nobody else has. Everyone else starts and sits on ESPN’s number. Ours adds the Vegas implied team total, the game script implied by the spread, and our own season-long read as a bounded tilt. What it deliberately will not do is overrule ESPN on whether a player has a role — a near-zero ESPN projection means inactive or buried, and those are gated out rather than conjured into starters. Edge is ours minus ESPN’s: the sign is the call, the size is how strongly.

Our model vs ESPN

#	Player	Pos	Tm	ESPN	Sleeper	Consensus	Ours	Edge	Our tilt	Game env	Game script

Waiver wire

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Rest-of-season pts	$	Pts added / week	Rostered %	Added in 48h	Worth a claim?

Both sides are measured on starting lineups, not on names. A deal only counts if it raises the points you can actually field. $ out and $ in are the straight-face test: lineup arithmetic will happily call a $45 player for a $3 bench arm a win for both sides, and no manager alive accepts that.

Evaluate a trade partner

Filter to one manager, or leave it on everyone

Trades both sides would accept

#	Shape	You	Them	Give	Get	Counterparty	$ out	$ in	Would they accept?

A manager trades when their season demands it. Playoff odds dominate: a team that cannot make the playoffs sells, and one that is close but flawed overpays. Draft disappointment is the secondary nudge, because sunk cost makes people restless. Sellers and restless managers are the ones who answer your message. Before any games are played everyone reads neutral, which is correct rather than broken.

Who is willing to deal

#	Stance	Team	Rec	Playoff %	Weak slots	Surplus	Draft	Read

All three prices are ours, not ESPN’s. Board and Now are the same currency — the whole season against what is left of it — so in week one they match by construction and separate from week two onward. Over/under paid (paid − board) is who overbid in the room, valid immediately. Return (now − paid) is whether that bid is being repaid, and only carries real information once games are played.

Draft value ledger

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Owner	Board	Paid	Over/under paid	Now	Return

Buy low — other managers’ sunk cost

Paid up, worth less now

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Owner	Paid	Now	Return

Sell high — your surplus

Cheap and outperforming

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Owner	Paid	Now	Return

Manager pain index

Who is underwater on draft night

#	Team	Spent	Now	Return	Biggest bust

Roster shape

Rest-of-season starting output against an average team

#	Pos	Your starters	League avg	Edge

Bye weeks on your roster

#	Week	Player	Pos	Tm	Rest-of-season pts	Out that week

Every roster

Sorted by rest-of-season starting strength

#	Team	Rec	Starting ROS	Holes	Deepest at

Slot against slot. The edge column is your player minus theirs in that slot, on the number a lineup is actually set on. It is where a week is won, and it is a better guide than the two totals: one enormous mismatch is worth more than being slightly ahead everywhere.

This week

Slot	Yours	Pts	Theirs	Pts	Edge

Coming up

Opponent strength for the weeks ahead

#	Week	Opponent	Home	Their proj

Matchup history

What we projected against what happened

Week	Opponent	Ours	ESPN	Actual	Miss	Result

Two different problems, shown separately. Availability is a health question — whether he plays at all, from a designation that may clear by Sunday to a stay on IR that will not. Role is a usage one: nothing is wrong with him, he simply is not the one getting the ball, and no amount of recovery time changes that. Collapsing them into one badge hides the distinction that matters most. Risk runs 1 to 5. These figures are deliberately not folded back into the projection — ESPN already prices designation to a degree, and penalising the same injury twice would be worse than showing it plainly.

News, injuries and usage

#	Risk	Player	Pos	Tm	Availability	Role	Depth	If #1 falls	Rest-of-season pts	Latest reporting

A backup is worth what he inherits, not what he projects. A third-string back scores nothing until the starter limps off, at which point he is suddenly startable — and whoever already holds him paid nothing for that. The share decays with depth on purpose: the direct understudy captures most of a role, a fourth-stringer almost none. Anything here with an empty owner is unowned.

Most valuable backups

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Depth	Behind	His value	Starter worth	He would inherit	Upside	Owner

Adds, drops and trades only. Draft picks and lineup changes are not transactions and are left out. A trade shows both sides and which way each player went; an offer that was declined shows as much as ESPN keeps, which is not the players.

Recent league transactions

#	When	What	Team	Manager	FAAB	In	Out

The currency depends on the system. In a budget league what matters is what is left to bid; in a rolling priority league it is your place in the queue, and a claim only resets when you spend it.

Waiver order

Claim order

Lower is better — and it resets to last after a claim

#	Claim order	Team	Manager	Adds	Drops	Trades

Graded against a forecast that was sealed first. Each week’s projections are written down the first time the week is seen and never rewritten, because a forecast that could be revised afterwards would quietly converge on the result and report perfect accuracy. Nothing appears here until games have been played.

Forecast accuracy

Week	Players graded	Our MAE	ESPN MAE	Closer

What the numbers mean

Rest of season: Total half-PPR points a player is projected to score from this week to the end of the regular season — so 232 means about 232 points across the weeks left, roughly 14 a game. This is the number that matters for trades and waiver adds; the start/sit figures are for this week only.
Edge: Our projection minus ESPN’s. The sign is the call, the size is how strongly.
Our tilt: How far our own season-long read moves the consensus. Bounded to roughly ±35% so it can never invent a starter.
Game env: Vegas implied team total against the week’s average. Above 1.00 is a better scoring environment.
Game script: Effect of the point spread. Favourites run more, underdogs throw more.
Gated out: Players whose ESPN weekly projection is near zero, meaning no role this week. We decline to project them rather than invent a starter.
Per week: What a waiver add would put into your starting lineup each week — not the player’s raw output.
Over replacement: Points above the best player freely available at that position. The basis for every dollar figure here.
Paid / Worth now: The winning auction bid, and what the same player would cost in an auction held today.
Return: Worth now minus price paid — whether that bid is being repaid.
Inherits: What a backup would be worth if the job ahead of him opened. The share decays with depth: the direct understudy captures most of a role, a fourth-stringer almost none.
MAE: Mean absolute error: the average miss per forecast. Lower is better.
Bias: Average signed miss. Positive means a source projects too high.