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WINN4FANTASYBUILDING YOUR WEEK0.0s
SETTING YOUR LINEUP
All positions
and the slots they fill
Draft board
Current
Player
Pos
Tm
Draft value
Current value
Went for
Over/under
Avg
High
Low
Drafted by
Play the game you are in
Current lineup
What would change
Optimal lineup
#
Slot
Player
Pos
Tm
Opp
ESPN
Ours
Edge
Scored
Matchup
+/−
Call
Why
Bench
#
Player
Pos
Tm
Opp
ESPN
Ours
Edge
Scored
Matchup
+/−
Call
Why
Standings
#
Team
Rec
PF
The week ahead, written up for your group chat.
Every matchup with its win chance and projections, who each side is
leaning on, and the players to watch. Every number is the one Matchup
shows; Copy preview puts it on your clipboard with a link.
Week Preview
Reading the week…
The week, written up for your group chat.
Once every game of a week is over, each matchup gets a sentence or two
and the week gets its awards. The scores and the awards are worked out
from the box scores; only the sentences are written, and each one is
checked against those numbers before it appears. Copy recap
puts the whole thing on your clipboard, with a link to the site.
Week Recap
Reading the week…
Where the week actually stands.
Not the score — the score cannot tell a thirty-point lead with
their whole slate still to come from the same lead with one man left.
Still open is the chance the week finishes the other way from
how it leans now: 45% when you are a 55% favorite, nothing once it is
settled. Riding on and Who can beat you split that one
amount between the men still to play, each in proportion to how much his
game can still move the margin — so a card reading 15% with 45%
open means he carries a third of what is left to decide, and the cards
on both panels add up to what is still open. A man projected fourteen in
a game you are winning by forty matters less than a man projected six in
a game you are losing by four.
Live Analysis
What this week is worth
Your playoff chance if you win
this, against your playoff chance if you lose it — counted off
the same four thousand simulated seasons the Playoff Odds tab shows,
split by how this week came out in each of them. The gap between the
two is what the result is actually worth: a game between two
eliminated squads and a game for the last playoff place are not the
same game.
What moved it
Where the win chance
went, and who moved it. Each man is priced against the
forecast sealed before kickoff. The men who beat the projection for
you share what they added, the men who cost you share what they took,
each in proportion to his points. A lead is worth more with three
games left than with nine, so the clock moves your chance on its own
with nobody scoring anything — that part is named separately.
The players and the clock add up to the total, with the
smallest entries left off the list.
Riding on
Who can beat you
On your bench
Slot
You started
Finishes on
On the bench
Finishes on
Difference
Still fixable?
League standings
#
Team
W-L
Points for
Points against
Diff
Streak
Last 3
All-play
Playoffs
Who each of your players is actually facing.
A defense is not equally good against everybody — the same club
can be brutal against the run and a soft touch against tight ends
— so every man is scored against what his OWN position gets from
the defense in front of him. A kicker is read against what that defense
gives up to kickers, and a defense against what the offense it faces
gives up to defenses: sacks, turnovers and points. A plus is a
favorable matchup and a minus is a hard one, read as how much more or
less than an average opponent he should expect. Bench players are here
too: a backup with a soft three weeks is a start, and a starter walking
into three hard ones is a trade.
Every player’s run
Slot
Player
Tm
This week
Next
Then
Next 3
Bye
The playoff weeks
Slot
Player
Tm
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Playoff run
Your lineup, week by week
Week
Out
Fills in
Projected
vs normal
Best fix
Who you play, and how hard
The other schedule, and unrelated
to the one above: a kind run of defenses is worth nothing in a week
you were always going to lose. Strength is each squad’s own
best lineup against the league median, so a plus is a harder
opponent than average. Use the picker to read any manager’s.
Week
Opponent
Home
You
Them
Gap
How hard
Best and worst schedules
Favorable
This week
Next 3
Unfavorable
This week
Next 3
Roster shape
Rest-of-season starting output against an average team
#
Pos
Your starters
League avg
Edge
One injury away
What a squad loses if its most important
starter goes down, and who is holding the man who takes over.
Each starter is removed in turn and the best legal lineup rebuilt from
what is left, so the number is what losing him costs rather than what
he is worth — a back with a useful understudy behind him costs a
fraction of one with nothing. It is capped at the drop to a waiver
pickup, because nobody plays a man short, which is also why
quarterbacks barely appear here.
#
Team
Starting
Worst loss
Most exposed
Pos
Tm
Who takes over
Held by
Bench worth
Trades hiding in the benches
#
Move
Player
Covers
With
At stake
Why
Every roster
Sorted by rest-of-season starting strength
#
Team
Rec
Starting ROS
Holes
Deepest at
Watch list
The currency depends on the system.
In a budget league what matters is what is left to bid; in a rolling
priority league it is your place in the queue, and a claim only resets
when you spend it.
Next week
Add
Pos
Drop
Costs this week
Gains next week
Net
The room
Your claims
#
Claiming
Dropping
Rest of season
Reads
The queue
Waiver wire
#
Player
Pos
Tm
This week
vs your worst
Who he replaces
Their pts
ROS pts
$
Pts added / week
Rostered %
Added in 48h
Snaps
Targets
Avg
High
Low
Bid
Worth a claim?
Claim order
Lower is better — and it resets to last after a claim
#
Claim order
Team
Manager
Adds
Drops
Trades
Both sides are measured on starting lineups,
not on names. A deal only counts if it raises the points you can
actually field. $ out and $ in are the straight-face
test: lineup arithmetic will happily call a $45 player for a $3 bench arm
a win for both sides, and no manager alive accepts that.
Playoffs and Title are what the deal
does to your season: the rest of the schedule is played out with and
without it, on the same simulated luck, and these are the difference in
percentage points, good to about a point. Points a week matter more to a team on the bubble
than to one already in, and these columns are where that shows. They are
played by the odds tab’s own rules, and they are changes rather
than the Playoff Odds tab's own numbers. A dash means that deal was not simulated.
Trade Analyzer
#
Shape
You
Them
Playoffs
Title
Their playoffs
Give
Get
Counterparty
$ out
$ in
Would they accept?
Build a trade
You send
You get
A manager trades when their season demands
it. Playoff odds dominate: a team that cannot make the playoffs
sells, and one that is close but flawed overpays. Draft disappointment is
the secondary nudge, because sunk cost makes people restless. Sellers and
restless managers are the ones who answer your message. Before any games
are played everyone reads neutral, which is correct rather than
broken.
A weakness is not a bad player. It is a place in the
league: the bottom fifth of the men actually filling that
slot across everyone’s best lineup, so in a ten-team
league the worst two RB1s, the worst two RB2s, the worst two flexes,
and so on. Somebody is always in the bottom fifth, so every squad has
one: the stance counts only the ones worth acting on
— a point a week behind, or nobody in the slot — and a
contender already starting one of the league’s best lineups reads
stand pat whatever its ranking, because pressing that
advantage is what the trade finder below is for. Each slot is read against its own kind — a flex
against the other flexes, never against every starting back —
and an empty slot is always weak. The number on each badge is
how far behind the middle of that slot he is, in
rest-of-season points: −16 means sixteen short of what
a typical man in that slot is worth. Hover a badge for both numbers
and his place in the row.
Who is willing to deal
#
Stance
Team
Rec
Playoff %
Weak slots
Weaknesses
Surplus
Draft
Read
Manager pain index
Who is underwater on draft night
#
Team
Spent
Now
Return
Biggest bust
Best value
The first two tables are
about football; the two under them are about the draft.
Each player’s expected points come from his usage — targets,
air yards, carries, pass attempts — and are set against what he has
actually scored. Touchdowns are the part that evens out most: about
seven tenths of a touchdown surplus or shortfall disappears over the
rest of a season, yards and catches rather less, and a running
back’s yardage barely at all. Change/g is how many points a
game we expect him to gain or lose from here on that basis.
Due to rise
Usage says they have been unlucky — trade or claim for them
#
Player
Pos
Tm
Owner
G
Scored/g
Expected/g
Change/g
Why
Due to cool off
Yours, scoring above what their usage supports — shop them while it lasts
#
Player
Pos
Tm
Owner
G
Scored/g
Expected/g
Change/g
Why
Buy low
#
Player
Pos
Tm
Owner
Paid
Now
Return
Avg
High
Low
Sell high
#
Player
Pos
Tm
Owner
Paid
Now
Return
Avg
High
Low
Watch list
Three numbers, and they are not the same
number.Proj is what a man was projected at kickoff
and never moves after it. Scored is what he has put up.
Edge is where the slot ends up — what each
player has banked plus the part of his projection his game has not
reached yet — so a man who is done contributes what he actually
got and a man who has not started contributes all of it.
The eight edges add up to the total at the bottom, and to the big
number in the middle of the scoreboard — the difference between
the two on pace figures, which is where the week is heading
and what the percentage beside each squad is worked out from.
The smaller figure under it is the plainer thing:
the gap between the two scores either side of it, right now. Slot by
slot is still the better read of
all of them — one enormous mismatch is worth more than being
slightly ahead everywhere.
–
now
on pace
This week
Slot
Yours
Proj
Scored
Theirs
Proj
Scored
Edge
Benches
Pos
Yours
Proj
Scored
Theirs
Proj
Scored
Coming up
How strong each opponent is, per week, on what is
left of their season — not a forecast of that week
#
Week
Opponent
Home
Their avg / wk
Matchup history
What we projected against what happened
Week
Opponent
Ours
ESPN
Actual
Miss
Result
Two different problems, shown
separately.Availability is a
health question — whether he plays at all, from a designation that
may clear by Sunday to a stay on IR that will not.
Role is a usage one: nothing is wrong
with him, he simply is not the one getting the ball, and no amount of
recovery time changes that. Collapsing them into one badge hides the
distinction that matters most. Risk runs 1 to 5. These figures
are deliberately not folded back into the projection — ESPN
already prices designation to a degree, and penalising the same injury
twice would be worse than showing it plainly.
Availability and usage
#
Overall
Risk
Player
Pos
Tm
Availability
Practice
Role
If #1 falls
ROS pts
Latest
Reporting
A backup is worth what he inherits, not what
he projects. A third-string back scores nothing until the
starter limps off, at which point he is suddenly startable — and
whoever already holds him paid nothing for that. The share decays with
depth on purpose: the direct understudy captures most of a role, a
fourth-stringer almost none. Anything here with an empty owner is
unowned. This week is projected points — what he does
for you while you wait. The three columns after it are on the
site's value scale — what the job is worth, what he would be
worth holding it, and the difference.
Most valuable backups
#
Player
Pos
Tm
Depth
Behind
This week
Starter worth
He would inherit
Upside
Owner
What is being written about your league,
whether or not anybody has been given a designation. An injury
report is a lagging thing: it says a man is out after somebody has
decided he is out. Coverage is where you find the ankle he walked off
on, the coach declining to name a starter, the charge, the holdout, the
trade being reported before it is announced. None of it is a
designation and all of it is a reason to look again before Sunday.
In the news
#
Player
Pos
Tm
Owner
Flag
ROS pts
Latest
What is being reported
Adds, drops and trades only. Draft
picks and lineup changes are not transactions and are left out. A trade
shows both sides and which way each player went; an offer that was
declined shows as much as ESPN keeps, which is not the players.
Recent league transactions
#
When
What
Team
Manager
FAAB
In
Out
How those moves worked out
Two numbers, because one
of them is mostly luck.Delivered is what the
players you got have actually scored since the move, minus what the
players you gave up have scored — the number a league argues about.
Expected is the same arithmetic over the same weeks, on the
projections sealed before each of them was played: what the move
looked like when it was made. Gap is the difference, and it
is the honest one — a deal that was right on the numbers and has gone
badly is a different thing from one that was wrong on the numbers,
and only the gap tells them apart.
A week still being played counts for neither column, so a move made
this week shows nothing rather than zero. A trade is graded from one
side, named in the row — a deal is never good in the abstract, only
good for somebody.
Week
Move
Team
In
Out
Delivered
Expected
Gap
A percentage does not answer the question you
actually have. “You make the playoffs 62% of the time”
is true and unusable; win two of your last four and you are in
is the same simulation read along the axis a manager can do something
about. Need is the fewest wins that put you past 95%,
Alive the fewest that keep you above 5%.
Nothing here says “clinched”, and that is deliberate: this
league breaks ties on points scored, so a berth is never a matter of
wins alone, and a line claiming otherwise would be wrong in exactly the
close seasons where it mattered.
A bye costs one week, not the season. Each squad plays
this week’s game on this week’s lineup and every game after
it with the lineup it can field that week, so a star resting this Sunday
counts against his team this Sunday only, and a bench player who covers
a later bye counts in the week he plays. Proj/wk is the
rest-of-season level.
This week counts what has already been scored.
This week’s matchup is played from where it stands — points
already banked plus what is still to come — the same figures the
Matchup scoreboard shows, so a forty-point Sunday lead counts as the
lead it is.
Playoff odds
#
Team
Rec
Proj/wk
Playoffs
Left
Need
Alive
Where it stands
#1 seed
Title
What each result is worth
Wins from here
Final record
Playoff chance
How often it happens
Graded against a forecast that was sealed
first. Each week’s projections are written down the first
time the week is seen and never rewritten, because a forecast that could
be revised afterwards would quietly converge on the result and report
perfect accuracy. Nothing appears here until games have been played.
Two numbers a week, because
one of them is mostly luck.Left on bench is the best
lineup you could have fielded knowing the final scores, minus what you
did field — everybody leaves points there, and nobody knew the
backup would go for thirty. Your calls is the honest one: what
you fielded minus what the page’s own lineup at kickoff would have
scored, from the projections sealed before the games. A plus means your
calls beat the numbers; a minus means going against them cost you. It
grades the page as much as it grades you.
What each slot was worth
Week
QB1
QB2
RB1
RB2
WR1
WR2
TE1
Position
Share of the value
Worth a team
You paid
Difference
Your calls, week by week
Week
Scored
Best possible
Left on bench
Page's lineup
Your calls
Costliest call
Best call
Forecast accuracy
Week
Players graded
Our MAE
ESPN MAE
Closer
When we disagree with ESPN
When to trust
the Edge column. Every graded forecast, grouped by how far
our projection and ESPN’s were apart. We were closer is
how often ours landed nearer the result. A group only gets a verdict
once its distance from fifty-fifty is bigger than chance explains;
until then it says so rather than guessing.
Apart by
Forecasts
Our miss
ESPN miss
We were closer
Read
ESPN projected
Forecasts
Our miss
ESPN miss
Our bias
Where the number comes from
The weekly number is the
middle of several opinions, and they are not equally good.
Each source's own projection is sealed beside the result every week,
exactly as ours is, so their records can be compared. A source that
has been closer gets a larger share of the middle — but it
stays a median, so one source publishing something absurd
still cannot move it, however large its share.
The same three brakes as the calibration below: only part of the
measured gap is applied, no source may outweigh an equal share by
more than 60%, and a source with too small a record keeps an equal
share rather than being guessed at. Sources are lettered rather than
named, and a letter stays with the same source from week to week.
Source
Graded
Weeks
Its miss
Its tilt
Share
What that means
What the model does about it
Every other adjustment on this site
is an opinion about football. This one is an opinion about
us: the sealed forecasts above say, position by position,
whether our number came in high or low, and the projection is nudged
back. A model that has been light on tight ends for six weeks
and does nothing about it is choosing to be wrong.
Three deliberate brakes. Only a fraction of the measured gap is
applied, because some of it is bias and some of it is the weeks that
happened to occur. It can never move a projection more than 8%, since
it compounds with four other adjustments. And it wants a real sample
— two weeks is not a trend, and a correction fitted to one
strange Sunday is worse than none.
Players who did not play are excluded. A man projected fourteen who
was ruled out on Sunday morning scored zero, and that zero is not
evidence the model tilts high; it is evidence we did not know
something when the number was written down. Counting those would
slide every position downwards.
Pos
Graded
Weeks
Our tilt
Median
Applied
What that means
Who is actually good at this, and who has
been lucky.Efficiency is what a manager's starting
lineup scored against the best lineup that roster could have produced
that week, knowing the final scores. Nobody reaches 100% and nobody
should — the hindsight lineup was unknowable at kickoff —
so it is only worth reading against the other managers in this league.
All-play is how each week would have gone against
every squad rather than the one the schedule picked,
which is the fairest measure of a team there is. Luck is
actual wins minus the wins that all-play record deserved: a team at 3-0
with the worst scores in the league has taken three the schedule handed
it, and this says so with a number.
The league, graded
#
Team
Rec
Scored/wk
Left on bench
Efficiency
All-play
Expected wins
Luck
Who is strongest right now — which is
not who is top of the table. A record is a receipt for games
already played. This is a valuation, and it has two halves, both of
them columns.
Past is what they have done: all-play, how each week
would have gone against every squad rather than the
one the schedule picked, with Last 3 and scoring level inside
it. Ahead is what is in front of them: Roster left,
the rest-of-season points of the best lineup that squad can still
field — with the weeks injured men are missing already taken off
them — adjusted for Rest sched, how good the opponents
they have yet to play have been.
Ahead counts for more than Past. Nick:
“If I am 5-0 and my entire team gets hurt for the rest of the
year, I am not the best team in the Power Rankings.” At an even
split that squad would still sit mid-table; weighted this way it falls
to where it belongs, and its Past column still reads what it
earned.
Two things this does not claim. It is not a forecast of next Sunday:
measured week by week against this season it predicts a single week
barely better than the standings do. And Move is what the
results did — ESPN does not keep what a squad
looked like a week ago, so last week’s order is worked out with
this week’s rosters, and a trade shows up in Roster left
straight away rather than as a move of its own.
The league, strongest first
#
Move
Team
Rec
Power
Past
Ahead
All-play
Last 3
Roster left
Rest sched
Why
Everyone, ordered by what they are worth this
week. The number in the first column is a rank of what you are
actually looking at — filter to receivers and tight ends and it
reads 1, 2, 3, 4 across the two of them, not the positions they happen
to hold on a list you filtered away. It stays with the player when you
sort by another column, and sorting by Pos rank lists each
position in order rather than interleaving them. Tick FLEX or
Superflex and the Pos rank column ranks that
whole pool as one — FLEX1, FLEX2 — rather than each man
against his own position, because who the best flex is is the question
you asked.
Weekly rankings
#
Pos rank
Player
Pos
Tm
Owner
ESPN
Ours
Edge
$
Rostered %
Everyone, ordered by what is left of their
season. The same list read the other way: this week answers
who to start, the rest of the season answers who to trade for. They
disagree most about players coming back from injury and players whose
schedule turns.
Rest-of-season rankings
#
Pos rank
Player
Pos
Tm
Owner
ESPN
Ours
Edge
$
Rostered %
Ours is the number the page stands on.
It starts from the middle of the experts’ projections, ESPN’s
among them, each scored under your league’s rules, and then leans on
what they do not fold in: the Vegas team total, the game script from the
spread, who he is actually lining up against, the wind and rain where
there is any, and his own season rate — as a bounded tilt. What it
will not do is overrule ESPN on whether a player has a role: a
near-zero ESPN projection means inactive or buried, and those are gated
out rather than conjured into starters. Edge is ours
minus ESPN’s: the sign is the call, the size is how strongly. The
columns after the season numbers show where each week’s number came
from.
Every player
Current
Player
Pos
Tm
Owner
ESPN
Second opinion
Consensus
Ours
Edge
Scored
ROS pts
$
Rostered %
Our tilt
Game env
Game script
Defense
Weather
Our record
NFL scoreboard
What the numbers mean
Edge
Ours minus ESPN’s.
Scored
His points this week so far; a dash until his
game kicks off.
Our tilt
How far our own read moves the consensus.
Capped at ±35%.
Game env
Vegas team total against the week’s
average. Above 1.00 scores better.
Defense
What the opponent gives up to this position.
Above 1 is worth attacking.
Our record
Our own graded forecasts, capped at 8%. Full
working on Accuracy.
Gated out
Near-zero ESPN projection — no role this
week, so we decline to project him.
Per week
What an add puts in your starting lineup, not
his raw output.
Over replacement
Points above the best free agent at the
position. Every dollar starts here.
Inherits
What a backup is worth if the job ahead of him
opens.
MAE
Average miss per forecast. Lower is better.
Bias
Average signed miss. Plus means projecting too
high.